Miami Dolphins (4-5) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Buffalo
Kickoff: Thursday, November 15th, at 8:20PM Eastern
Line: –1.5 Buffalo
Thursday night, the Buffalo Bills (3-6) host the Miami Dolphins (4-5) and the oddsmakers at YouWager have posted the Buffalo Bills as 1.5-point favorites in this contest. The Dolphins lost for the second consecutive week with a painful 37-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans, at home. The Buffalo Bills (3-6) extended their own losing streak to three games with a 37-31 road loss to the New England Patriots.
Most of YouWager’s NFL bettors blame Miami’s embarrassing loss to the Tennessee Titans on the three turnovers they made in the first half. They made another one in the second half. A fumble and two interceptions put the Dolphin in a 24-3 deficit by halftime and they did not pursue a running game. By the end, Miami only had 54 rushing yards for the game. They didn’t score at all during the second half.
Turnovers also made the difference for Buffalo in their loss to the Patriots. The Bills also committed 14 penalties for 148 yards, but unlike the Dolphins, they were still in the game, until the end. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 27 of 40 passes for 319 yards, but an interception, in the end zone, with only 23 seconds left on the clock killed Buffalo’s chances for victory. Fred Jackson ran the ball early in the game, but a head injury eventually took him out.
YouWager’s NFL analysts feel that Miami has the weaker offense here. They are rated only 26th in the NFL in total offense, with 323.9 yards per game. Buffalo is rated 15th with 358.7 yards per game. Miami is ranked 25th in scoring with 19.2 points per game, and Buffalo ranks 17th with 23.4 points per game.
Buffalo, an expert at YouWager says, simply has a more experienced quarterback. Fitzpatrick has completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,011 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Miami’s Ryan Tannehill has only completed 58.9 percent of his passes for 1,979 yards with five touchdowns and nine interceptions.
The Dolphins have actually been a moneymaker for many online sportsbook bettors in recent games. They are 5-6 against the spread when they are on the road, since the 2010 NFL football wagering season, and they are 8-1 against the spread in road games after a loss at home. Miami has won six of the last eight meetings between these two straight up and against the spread, and two in a row in Buffalo.
Buffalo has one of the worst defenses in the league. The Bills rank at the very bottom in scoring defense with 31.7 points allowed per game, and they are next to last in total defense with 410.0 yards allowed per game. Buffalo has the poorest rushing defense in the league. They give up 163.7 rushing yards per game. Buffalo’s poor defense against the run concerns some YouWager bettors, because Miami is 8-1 against the spread against defenses that allow 4.5 rushing yards or more per carry.
Miami has a better defense. The Bills are at their best when they’re running the ball, so the Dolphins just might be able to slow down Buffalo’s running game.
Buffalo’s ground game may not be as tough since Fred Jackson will probably not be playing anytime soon, after his concussion injury. C.J. Spiller will have to step into Jackson’s shoes and make some tracks.
A few trends to consider: The total has gone Under in 5 of Miami’s last 5 games.
The Dolphins are 6-2 straight up in their last 8 games when they are playing Buffalo. The Bills are 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games. Buffalo is 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games at home. The Bills are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games when they are playing Miami.
With Spiller running the ball for Buffalo, and Miami’s poor passing defense, and given Miami’s limited ability to even score, YouWager’s NFL expert is taking the Bills, as a 1.5-point favorite. The total is 45.5. Game time on Thursday night is 8:20PM Eastern.