In a 7-game series, being down 0-2 looks bad, but it also still means that there is time to get things sorted out and get back on track. This is especially true if the first two losses came on the road in the opening games of an MLB playoff series, as heading home for the next two can often be the move the MLB betting odds in your favor.

This is the position that the Yankees find themselves in as Game 3 of the ALCS approaches. Can they get back on track and back into this series at home, or are the Houston Astros going to continue to win via superior pitching? Let’s look ahead at what is to come in this series to see if we can find some answers.

Houston Astros at New Yankees ALCS Game 3

Monday, October 16th, 6:08 PM
Yankee Stadium, New York City, New York
Houston Astros: 
New York Yankees: -125

Games 3 and 4 in New York

It was not so very long ago that the Yankees found themselves in this position, as they had to come back from 0-2 down to get past the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS. This is a team that appears to thrive under pressure, because let’s not forget that they also got past the Minnesota Twins in the Wild Card Game after getting off to a rocky start.

The difference in this series, at least through the first two games, is that the Yankees have been shut down by the Astros pitching staff. Dallas Keuchel was brilliant in Game 1, but it’s fair to say that Justin Verlander’s complete game masterpiece in Game 2 was even better. The Yankees batters struck out a combined 27 times through the opening two games of the series, which is something that needs to change if they are to get back into this thing.

Game 3 will see Charlie Morton and CC Sabathia go head to head on the mound, and as much as Sabathia brings a veteran presence to the proceedings, I am concerned about his ability to go deep, which is why I have Houston winning Game 3. I do like Sonny Gray to get the win in Game 4, where Collin McHugh is likely to be on the mound, which means the Yankees would still be alive, albeit in a 1-3 hole heading back to Houston.

Dallas Keuchel

Game 5 and Beyond

If the Astros go into New York and take Game 3, there is a good chance that we will be looking at a sweep, but as previously mentioned, I like the Yankees to come away with a split at home.

There are an awful lot of scenarios that can come into play if the Astros take a 3-0 lead, one of which may be them skipping McHugh and going with Dallas Keuchel to close out the series. I’m not sure that’s a chance they would take given that they would still be heading back home with a chance to wrap things up with a Game 4 loss.

The best case scenario for the Yankees is that they win both home games and make this a series, but that would still mean needing to face Keuchel and Verlander again, and also fining a way to get in a win in Houston. If you include the opening 2 games of the ALCS, the Yankees are now just 2-7 versus the Astros in 2017, which includes being just 1-3 in NYC.

Prior to the start of this series, I had the Houston Astros winning in 5 games and heading to the World Series. I have seen nothing to suggest that I should change that prediction, but if I had to make an adjustment, it would be to have the Astros sweeping the series. I’m still sticking with a 4-1 series win for Houston.


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