AFC Wild Card: Indianapolis Colts Vs Houston Texans
If you’re fired up about the quickly approaching NFL playoffs and you love making Over/Under total wagers, then you’re going to enjoy the expert Over/Under total prediction that you’re about to get on the AFC Wild Card clash between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.
The AFC South division rivals will meet for the right to advance to the divisional round on Saturday afternoon, live from NRG Stadium in Houston. Now, let’s find out whether the Over or Under is the right call for this contest while getting the ATS pick on this one as well.
Indianapolis is clearly playing its best football of the season at just the right time. The Colts closed out the regular season by winning four straight games and a blistering nine of their last 10 games overall. Indianapolis showed some serious fortitude by beating Tennessee in Week 17 to reach the playoffs despite being on the road.
including their 33-17 win over Tennessee on Sunday night that propelled them into the playoffs. Andrew Luck passed for 285 yards with three TD passes while Marlon Mack rushed for 119 yards and one score on 25 carries as Indy dominated Tennessee to pick up a convincing 33-17 win over the Titans while the game’s final score played Over the 42.5-point total.
“It’s been a lot of fun,” Luck said. “It’s been a journey, that’s for sure. I think what this team is doing is enjoying the journey.”
The Colts have played Over the total in two straight after playing Under the total in each of their previous five games. The Colts are putting up a healthy 27.1 points per game to rank fifth in scoring while limiting the opposition to just 21.5 points per game defensively to rank 10th in points allowed. Again, speaking about Indy’s fortitude, the Colts, and franchise quarterback Andrew Luck have been nearly unrivaled in that department in rebounding from an uninspiring 1-5 start this season. For the season, Luck is completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 4,593 yards with 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions.
“I mean you’re 1-5, and that’s special,” Reich said. “It not only takes the whole team for 10 weeks, so that’s very special.”• Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games on FieldTurf.
• Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 vs. AFC.
• Under is 7-2 in Colts last 9 playoff road games.
• Under is 11-4 in Colts last 15 vs. AFC South.
• Under is 8-3 in Colts last 11 Saturday games.
• Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games overall.
• Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Texans split their final four regular-season contest but managed to get past Jacksonville 20-3 in their Week 17 finale to win the AFC South in a game that finished well under the 39.5-point total. Second-year signal-caller Deshaun Watson passed for 234 yards while rushing for an additional 66 yards and one touchdown.
“We have a lot bigger goals,” J.J. Watt said. “I have a lot bigger goals but it’s good. Especially after starting 0-3 and everybody writes you off. Guys in the locker room believed. Guys in the locker room never gave up.”
Like the Colts, Houston showed some serious fortitude after going 0-3 to start the season. Despite their late-season struggles, Houston won 11 of its final 13 regular season contests and hits the playoffs with some decent momentum after winning two of their final three games.
“The way we started out, it’s a testament to the players in that locker room,” coach Bill O’Brien said. “They’ve always hung tough. And to go from 0-3 (and then) go 11-2 in this league is pretty tough to do. Give credit to the players.”
Houston averages 25.1 points per game to rank 11th in scoring while limiting the opposition to 19.8 points per game defensively to rank a stupendous fourth in points allowed. This season, Watson has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 4,165 yards with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
• Under is 8-2 in Texans last 10 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 8-3 in Texans last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 13-5 in Texans last 18 vs. AFC.
• Under is 18-7 in Texans last 25 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
• Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 home games.
• Under is 5-2 in Texans last 7 vs. AFC South.
Expert Pick and Prediction
Let me get started by saying that this is a contest that Indianapolis could definitely win despite being on the road. These two teams are very evenly matched and the Colts have the slight edge at quarterback in this pairing. Having said that, I think Houston’s defense will be the difference in this contest that lifts them to the narrow home win in this matchup.
Indianapolis and Houston have combined to play Under the total in six of their last 10 meetings. The Under is also 8-1 in Indy’s last 9 games against a team with a winning record, but the Over is 5-2 in the Colts last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Over is also a consistent 4-1 in Houston’s last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record and the Over is what I’m going to advise you to play in this matchup.
As far as the ATS pick for this contest is concerned, the Colts are an uninspiring 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games while the Texans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against their AFC counterparts and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. I’m going with Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans to get past Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts while the final score plays over the 47.5-point total.
Predicted Score: Indianapolis Colts 24 | Houston Texans 27
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