Important Trends & Stats to Define your Super Bowl LII Betting Picks
Super Bowl LII is now just days away, which means it’s time to really start thinking about how you are going to spend your wagering money this weekend. Bettors who win regularly are usually the ones who look at the stats and trends of both teams involved, while also looking at how things have played out historically in the Super Bowl. Oddly enough, there are a lot of people who ignore the history of the big game, often feeling that it has no bearing on this one, but there is a single stat that would debunk that theory and define how the Super Bowl LII betting picks behave but we will reveal that a little later. We are going to focus on how things have played out in Super Bowls past in this piece, as I believe that most folks already know the stats and trends of the Patriots and Eagles ahead of this game.
— NFL (@NFL) January 30, 2018
Favorite or Underdog?
When you get to this stage of the season, you are generally left with two very good teams. Let’s not forget here that the underdog in the Super Bowl still went out and won their conference, which is no mean feat any year. Being put in as the underdog has actually been a positive in the Super Bowl in recent years, as the winner of the big game has been the underdog in 9 of the last 11. The spread usually runs somewhere between 2 ½ and 7 points, so we are not really looking at a huge underdog by any stretch of the imagination. The biggest dog win in recent years came in Super Bowl XLII, when the Giants beat the Patriots as a 12-point dog. The moral of the story here is that the favorite is not a shoe-in at the Super Bowl.
It’s fair to say that football has changed dramatically in the last decade. You need only look at the draft each year to see that running backs are considered less valuable than they were in the past. The NFL has become pass happy in recent years, and that has had an impact on the point total in the Super Bowl. The OVER has hit in 4 of the last 5 championship games and 6 of the last 10. That broke a run of 4 straight years where the UNDER came up trumps, with those results coming at a time when pounding the ball up the middle was still very much in style. The thing to look at here is how each team will approach this game. The Eagles best shot at winning comes with keeping Brady off the field, which they do by being successful with the run. That may well mean that the point total stays low.
One of the more popular bets in football is wagering against the spread, but it’s also the one that may be the easiest to predict in the Super Bowl. Given that the underdog has won so frequently in recent years, it stands to reason that they also cover. That said, the same rules apply when the favorite wins, as they cover more often than not. We are currently on a run of the Super Bowl winner covering the spread that goes back 8 years. This is where we come to that stat we mentioned earlier, which is that in the 51 previous Super Bowls, the winner who entered as the favorite has covered all but 6 times. This would suggest that when you play the Patriots straight up, you should also play them ATS.