NFL Trio of Action: Patriots at Titans, Jaguars at Colts & Cardinals at Chiefs
Can Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans pull off the big upset of Tom Brady and the streaking New England Patriots?
Are Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts the pick to get past the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars when the two teams square off in their AFC South division rivalry this weekend?
Last but certainly not least, can Patrick Mahomes and the exciting Kansas City Chiefs use their league-leading offense to cover the chalk as a nearly three-touchdown favorite against rebuilding Arizona?
With the Titans, Jaguars, and Cardinals all looking to pull off upsets, let’s find out where the value lies in their respective Week 10 matchups with our NFL Trio of Action.
New England Patriots Vs Tennessee Titans
Tennessee got a good performance out of Marcus Mariota and everyone else en route to their convincing 28-14 smackdown of Dallas on Monday night as a 4.5-point road dog no less. Mariota threw two TD passes and ran for another and Tennessee’s defense held Ezekiel Elliott to just 61 rushing yards in the win. Unfortunately for the Titans, they’re going to be taking on a New England team that is simply far and away the better team in this matchup.
Not only have Tom Brady and company won six straight games, but they’ve scored 31 points or more in five of those contest while scoring 38 or more four times. While New England allows about four points per game more than Tennessee does defensively this season, the Patriots also average a whopping 14.9 points per game more than the offensively-challenged Titans.
New England has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of November, a stellar 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against a team with a losing record and a consistent 23-8 ATS in their last 3games against their AFC counterparts. Conversely, Marcus Mariota and the struggling Titans are a nearly winless 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Week 10 games, an uninspiring 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of November and a pitiful 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Last but not least, Tom Brady and the Pats are an unblemished 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings while the favorite in this rivalry has gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Keep it simple, the Patriots are by far the better team in this affair and they’re on a red-hot roll. New England wins and covers.
Predicted Score: New England Patriots 31 | Tennessee Titans 17
Jacksonville Jaguars Vs Indianapolis Colts
The Jags and Colts both had a bye this past weekend, so they’ll both enter their Week 10 AFC South divisional matchup well-rested. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, they’re in the midst of some big-time struggles, having lost four straight games prior to their bye including their 24-18 Week 8 loss against Philly in London. Indianapolis has won two straight prior to the break including an emphatic 42-28 blowout win over Oakland.
For this Week 10 matchup, I’m going to urge you to back the Indianapolis Colts to get the win and cover as a slightly more than a field goal favorite for one big reason. The Colts have a franchise quarterback in Andrew Luck while Jacksonville really needs to part ways with awful veteran Blake Bortles.
Bortles has thrown 10 TD passes and eight interceptions this season and that’s just not going to cut it as a starting NFL quarterback. Over his last four starts, Bortles has thrown three TD passes and five picks, so he’s clearly gotten progressively worse as the season as gone along.
On the flip side of the coin, Andrew Luck has looked increasingly like the franchise stud he did prior to missing the entire 2017 campaign last season. Luck has thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of his last five games while tossing four TDs in three of those games. Luck has thrown seven touchdown passes and no picks over his last two starts and just looks like he’s back to being a Top 5 quarterback.
The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss and a winless 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Conversely, the Colts are a robust 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games in November and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. With the Favorite in this series going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings, I like Indy to win and cover the chalk with a bit of room to spare.
Predicted Score: Indianapolis Colts 28 | Jacksonville Jaguars 23
Arizona Cardinals Vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Cardinals had the weekend off following their 18-15 Week 8 win against San Francisco, but it really won’t matter if they had the entire month off because Kansas City is light years ahead of their Week 10 opponents. The Chiefs have won three straight and smacked Cleveland around in a ‘ho-hum’ 37-21 beatdown on Sunday while covering the chalk as an 8.5-point road favorite just as I predicted last week.
For this Week 10 pairing, if you’re worried about Kansas City covering the big spread as nearly 17-point home favorite, don’t be! The Chiefs lead the league in scoring (36.3 ppg) and put up almost 23 points per game more than offensively-challenged Arizona, while allowing just one more point per game than their NFC counterparts in this contest defensively.
Second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes is clearly a superstar and is having an MVP-caliber season, despite his youth. The former Texas Tech signal-caller has thrown at least three TD passes in each of his last four games while throwing three or more in seven of Kansas City’s nine game so far this season. Mahomes has tossed four TD passes in five games while tossing a career-high six in Week 2 against Pittsburgh. While I like Arizona rookie signal-caller Josh Rosen and I believe he’s got a very bright future, the Cardinals are in the beginning stages of a complete rebuild and I don’t believe they stand any chance of covering the spread in this contest at all.
The Cardinals are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November and a discouraging 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win. On the flip side of the coin, Kansas City has gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 10, a seriously bankroll-boosting 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games and a robust 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. Don’t think twice about it. Kansas City wins and covers the big figure!
Predicted Score: Kansas City Chiefs 41 | Arizona Cardinals 14
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